Petrol Prices Set to Rise Nationwide as Iran-US-Israel Conflict Pushes Up Crude Costs

Petroleum marketers and retail outlet operators in Nigeria say pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) are set to increase nationwide from Tuesday, 3 March, into Wednesday, 4 March 2026, following a fresh upward review of ex-depot pricing by Dangote Refinery.

The operators said the adjustment reflects renewed pressure in the international oil market after recent hostilities involving Iran, the United States and Israel. According to market figures cited on Monday, Dangote Refinery raised its gantry price to N874 per litre, while many filling stations were already selling around N870 to N899 per litre.

Industry stakeholders said the new refinery rate is expected to filter quickly into retail pricing across major cities, with some projections placing pump prices between N980 and N1,000 per litre in parts of the Federal Capital Territory and surrounding areas.

The market tension follows reports of escalating conflict in the Middle East, including attacks on oil and gas assets and disruptions to shipping routes linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts said any extended interruption in that corridor can tighten global supply and raise benchmark prices.

By Monday, Brent crude was reported at about $78.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $71.84. On gas, Goldman Sachs said prolonged disruption could raise LNG prices to roughly $25 per million British thermal units for Europe and Asia.

Speaking on the likely domestic impact, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria spokesperson Chinedu Ukadike said consumers should prepare for further price movement because international crude costs are feeding directly into local pricing decisions.

Ukadike said there will be fluctuation and increases, adding that supply concerns in global shipping channels are likely to place additional pressure on crude movement and pricing. He said the exact pump price in each location will depend on transportation and logistics after product leaves the depot.

He also advised motorists against panic buying, saying supply to the local market should continue as long as refinery output is maintained and crude feedstock arrangements remain active.

The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, gave a similar assessment. He said rising hostilities in the Middle East are already translating into higher crude prices, and local refiners are expected to react quickly to protect margins.

According to him, disruptions affecting major producing and transit regions create direct pricing consequences for import-dependent and refinery-linked markets, including Nigeria’s downstream sector.

The latest adjustment adds pressure to households and transport operators already dealing with high living costs. For many businesses, another pump-price increase may raise distribution expenses and push up final consumer prices in the coming days.

Marketers said price boards are likely to change in phases as stations receive new stock at revised rates. They added that the direction of prices this week will depend on how long external tensions continue and whether global oil flows stabilise quickly.