Mozambique LNG Surge Raises Pressure on Nigeria’s Gas Export Strategy

Mozambique’s fast-growing liquefied natural gas programme is increasing pressure on Nigeria to accelerate gas infrastructure, financing and project execution if it wants to retain African export leadership over the next decade.

A BusinessDay analysis said Mozambique could narrow the gap with Nigeria in five to 10 years if Nigeria continues with slow project delivery despite holding Africa’s largest proven gas reserves.

The report said Mozambique has about 100 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves and already produces 3.4 million tonnes per annum from the Coral South floating LNG plant, which started operations in 2022. The Coral North FLNG project is expected to lift that output to 7 mtpa by 2028.

Beyond those projects, two larger developments are expected to reshape Mozambique’s export capacity: the $20 billion TotalEnergies-promoted Mozambique LNG project with 12.9 mtpa projected for 2029, and the $30 billion ExxonMobil-led Rovuma LNG project with planned capacity of 18 mtpa. Final investment decision for Rovuma is planned for 2026.

If those projects stay on track, Mozambique is expected to reach at least 34.7 mtpa in LNG exports by 2034, with cumulative revenue projections of about $100 billion by 2045.

The report also linked Mozambique’s momentum to location advantage. Its Indian Ocean position gives direct shipping access to Asian buyers including Japan, China and India, while also supporting exports to Europe. The same positioning has helped attract large foreign direct investment into offshore gas assets in the Rovuma Basin.

For Nigeria, the warning is not only from Mozambique. Other sub-Saharan producers are also expanding LNG plans, including Angola, Senegal, Mauritania and Tanzania. Senegal and Mauritania’s Greater Tortue Ahmeyim development was highlighted as a key example of joint-border execution.

The GTA field, estimated at about 25 trillion cubic feet, straddles both countries’ maritime boundary and is being developed with a shared 50/50 framework on cost and revenue. The project is designed to supply both domestic gas demand and LNG exports, while spreading the cost of offshore subsea and floating infrastructure.

Phase 1 of GTA, using the Gimi FLNG system, began exports in 2025 with processing capacity of about 2.3 to 2.5 mtpa.

The analysis said Africa now accounts for around 40 per cent of global FLNG capacity, with multiple projects either operational or approaching delivery. Projects referenced include Coral South in Mozambique, Hilli Episeyo in Cameroon, Tango FLNG in Congo, Gimi FLNG in Senegal-Mauritania, Nguya FLNG in Congo, Coral North in Mozambique, UTM FLNG in Nigeria and Cap Lopez FLNG in Gabon.

According to the report, excluding projects being phased out, these systems represent material export capacity and show that many African countries are using FLNG as a faster and lower-frontier route into global LNG trade.

The report said Nigeria still has room to defend and expand its position, but only through coordinated public-private execution across production, midstream transport, liquefaction, financing and skills development. It argued that stronger partnerships among NNPC, private operators, investors, technical groups and financial institutions are needed to move projects from planning to delivery.

It also said the wider private sector in Nigeria is becoming more willing to take higher-risk positions in energy, similar to recent shifts seen in the country’s upstream oil market. That trend, the report said, should now extend more aggressively into upstream gas development and LNG investment portfolios between 2026 and 2045.

Overall, the article framed Mozambique’s rise not as a distant threat but as an immediate competitive signal: Nigeria can retain leadership, but only if speed, capital structure and execution discipline improve across the gas value chain.